<<My guess is that there is some truth to the sagging sales, and the market doesn't like it. I suspect also that some investors are taking long-term profits, while others are wary of MSFT's intent to get even with Apple. This stock is likely to continue its decline until some evidence arises that it will again beat estimates come January.>>
Sam,
Your guess is as good as mine, but the volatility of AAPL in the last 6 weeks or so does not support your theory - IMO.
There are large blocks of AAPL crossing and trading suggesting a major shareholder/shareholders are exchanging and selling shares -- but at the same time there are buyers coming in at the discount. The MM are bring down the price to move the volume, and as soon as the crossing of shares or the large shareholder has sold off the price will go up (this has been going on/off for 6 weeks or so whenever AAPL reaches $38+).
The AAPL play of the moment is this: Sell at $38, buy at $35 (it's present trading range). The only problem with this play *at present* is if the big guy/guys are done selling, which I suspect is near at hand, AAPL will suddenly jump past the upper resistance barrier of $39, continue till it reaches PE parity with other box mfgs, and not retreat allowing reentry at the lower price.
My play: Sit tight-AAPL fundamentals are too strong for the next 2 Quarters. |
