Can they win without Florida?
Sen. John Kerry would love to carry the state and its 27 electoral votes, but it's not a necessity. For President Bush, losing Florida likely means losing the White House.
By ADAM C. SMITH, Times Political Editor
Published October 21, 2004
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Wonder why President Bush returns to Florida Friday just three days after he left?
Look at the electoral map.
Amid the dizzying and often conflicting array of polls flooding the media, the only gauge that really matters is the electoral college. It takes 270 electoral votes to win the White House, and the bottom line for Bush is that without Florida in his column, the path to a second term looks bleak.
"Bush can't win without Florida, but Kerry can," said Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson, voicing a sentiment echoed on both sides of the aisle.
Not that John Kerry is ceding Florida one iota. Like Bush, he's flooding the state's TV airwaves with ads, and he is set to campaign in the state Sunday for the second time in less than a week. His running mate, John Edwards, hits Florida again this weekend, including a Saturday afternoon stop in St. Petersburg.
But reaching 270 electoral votes without Florida is much less plausible for Bush than Kerry. He won the state four years ago after a 36-day recount battle, and losing its 27 electoral votes this time would require him to pick off several states that Al Gore won in 2000 while holding every other state he won in 2000.
"He'd have to swing three Gore states, and hold New Hampshire and Nevada," said Chuck Todd, editor of the Hotline political newsletter, referring to two states Bush won in 2000 that now appear to be tossups.
Less than two weeks before election day, the race is down to fewer than 10 battleground states. The biggest and most unpredictable prizes are Florida (27 electoral votes), Pennsylvania (21); Ohio (20); and Wisconsin (10). In 2000, Bush won Florida and Ohio, while Gore won Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Pollsters, political strategists and analysts now see Bush with 20 states solidly behind him, totaling 166 electoral votes, plus six states totaling 56 electoral votes leaning his way. Kerry has 153 electoral votes from 10 states and the District of Columbia virtually locked up, and another seven states with 68 electoral votes leaning his way.
The would leave seven states with a total of 95 electoral votes up for grabs in the final days.
With population changes adding electoral votes to Republican-leaning states, Bush started out this race with a seven-vote advantage over his 271 electoral vote victory in 2000. If Kerry wins every state Gore won, he winds up with 260 electoral votes.
That means he has to pick up states Bush won in 2000, and he has major opportunities with Florida's 27 electoral votes and Ohio's 20. Polls show both states too close to call.
Bush's biggest opportunity is Pennsylvania (21 votes), which Gore narrowly won in 2000. There, the polls look neck and neck but lately are showing a consistent, albeit narrow Kerry lead. Even some Republican strategists are quietly writing off Pennsylvania.
By many estimates, whoever wins two of the big three - Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania - will be president.
"It's possible that Florida won't matter in the end, that Bush could win Florida and still lose. But then Kerry needs to keep Pennsylvania and he needs to win Ohio," said pollster Jim Kane of Fort Lauderdale.
Even losing Florida and Pennsylvania, Bush could ride former Gore states to victory: New Mexico (five electoral votes); Wisconsin (10) and Iowa (seven), to name a few. Those states would hand him the White House, so long as he didn't lose any other states from 2000. Unfortunately for Bush, he appears shaky in Nevada and New Hampshire.
"To me it really comes down to Florida, Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, New Mexico and Nevada," said University of Virginia political scientist Larry Sabato. "Right now I think Kerry is closer to the 270 than George Bush, but that may change not just once but two or three times in the two weeks remaining."
Indeed, a shift in the race could put any number of marginally competitive states, including Republican-leaning Arizona (eight electoral votes), Colorado (nine) or Missouri (11) and Kerry-leaning Minnesota (10), Oregon (seven), or New Jersey (15) back in play and lead to a strong win by either side.
Another scenario would be Kerry losing Florida and Ohio but improving Gore's scorecard by picking up Nevada and New Hampshire. Electoral tally: 269 for Kerry and 269 for Bush.
The tie would almost certainly go to Bush. The newly elected House of Representatives would decide the winner, with each state delegation casting one vote. If Democrats win control of the Senate, though, they could have some consolation. The Senate majority would choose the vice president.
Adam C. Smith can be reached at 727 893-8241 or adam@sptimes.com
[Last modified October 21, 2004, 00:33:24] |
