McCain, Romney seek command on Feb. 5
By LIZ SIDOTI and LIBBY QUAID, Associated Press Writers
September 30, 2008
BURBANK, Calif. - John McCain and Mitt Romney are trying to take command of the long and antagonistic Republican presidential race, and the sheer size of next Tuesday's delegate haul could finally make that possible.
Of the 1,191 national convention delegates needed to secure the nomination, 1,023 are up for grabs in 21 GOP contests — a virtual national primary for the party.
Both McCain and Romney made a beeline to California after McCain won in Florida, reflecting the importance of Super Tuesday's biggest prize. California awards 170 convention delegates, followed by New York, Georgia, Missouri, Illinois and New Jersey.
The chaotic GOP campaign has come full circle. McCain and Romney were front-runners a year ago, then McCain's effort seemed to collapse, and other candidates took their turns at the top of polls. But Rudy Giuliani's gone now, and Mike Huckabee has been running far behind the leaders.
A Vietnam veteran and four-term senator. His age, 71, and his independent streak could be hurdles.
Romney is a fresh face pushing an outsider's message of fixing Washington.
Here's a look at Tuesday's big prizes:
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CALIFORNIA (170 delegates)
Only registered Republicans can vote in the primary. That could benefit Romney and hurt McCain.
The state party will distribute delegates based on the winner in each congressional district, meaning 53 separate contests each offering three delegates. Thus, the candidates are targeting time and money carefully to the districts they think they have the best chance to win.
McCain could have an advantage in urban areas and California's coastal counties that tend to lean toward the left. The former Vietnam prisoner of war also should find support in the south around military-focused San Diego. Romney may perform well among the more conservative inland counties.
Romney has more campaign organization here, and money.
The effect of Schwarzenegger's endorsement is unclear. His popularity is not at a high point given state budget turmoil.
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NEW YORK (101 delegates)
With Giuliani bowing out, New York is McCain's to lose — a lot of delegates and winner-take all.
It's also the country's most expensive media market, so it may make sense for Romney to put his resources elsewhere in an effort to cobble together wins in smaller caucus states.
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GEORGIA (72 delegates)
Huckabee leads.
The former Baptist preacher and Southern governor is limping along, short on cash and victories. But he views Georgia as the perfect state for him to make a comeback — or at least cause waves in the race.
He rallied fellow evangelical Christians in Iowa to win and hopes to do so again here. For him, it seems, the race has become less about winning the nomination and more about solidifying himself as a fresh-faced leader.
The state awards delegates by congressional district; thus, Romney — who has the endorsements of three congressmen — may try to pick off districts that could be easiest to win.
McCain won't ignore the state, but it's not a priority.
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MISSOURI (58 delegates)
It's a toss-up between McCain, Romney and Huckabee.
All three plan stops in the state or already have visited in recent weeks; the attention underscores the prize, again winner-take-all.
Romney has Midwestern ties and the support of Gov. Matt Blunt — and access to Blunt's political organization.
The state, very conservative in Republican primaries, is not a natural fit for McCain. Huckabee and Romney could split the vote on the right.
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ILLINOIS (57 delegates)
The state is up for grabs.
Romney has some semblance of a campaign to build upon. His Midwestern roots — he was born and raised in Michigan — could help him.
Both plan to spend time in Illinois in the coming days, primarily to raise money in Chicago.
The rural, more conservative southern swath of the state could lean toward Romney. Huckabee could peel votes away from him should Christian evangelicals in the south turn out.
Delegates are won congressional district by congressional district.
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NEW JERSEY (52 delegates)
McCain has an advantage.
In many ways, this winner-take-all state is much like neighboring New York. New Jersey is home to huge numbers of moderate Republicans.
As in New York, Romney must weigh whether competing here is worth it. Campaigning in New Jersey typically doesn't result in much of a return on a candidate's investment. Philadelphia and New York are the two media markets that cover the state, making TV ads extraordinarily expensive to run. At the same time, it's hard for candidates to break through the cluttered news environment to earn free media exposure.
McCain has the backing of former Gov. Thomas Kean, while Romney has the support of State Sen. Joe Kyrillos, the former chairman of New Jersey's Republican state committee.
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BEST OF THE REST
Of the 15 other states that will vote, three are home states that each candidate is all but certain to win — Arizona for McCain, Massachusetts for Romney and Arkansas for Huckabee.
Utah is likely to give Romney a win. He also will look to win in states that hold caucuses — Alaska, Colorado, Minnesota, North Dakota — and one that holds a state convention, West Virginia.
McCain might do well in Western states of Oklahoma and New Mexico, as well as moderate Northeastern states like Connecticut and Delaware. Huckabee will look to a Southern swath of conservative bastions like Tennessee to validate his weakened candidacy.
Montana is a wild card. |
