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Technology Stocks : MSFT Internet Explorer vs. NSCP Navigator
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To: nommedeguerre who wrote (20819)9/3/1998 3:56:00 PM
From: Charles Hughes   of 24154
 
>>> You are forgetting we are in a new "paradigm shift" economically -- like the ones in the 20's and early 70's. <<<

I'm not really forgetting that. It's part of my theory (and not just mine.) All the real paradigm shifts of the last 200 years have been accompanied by giant recessions, depressions, and 'panics', until the details were worked out. You don't have paradigm shifts without sacrifices. The strength of those being proportional to the depth of the paradigm shift.

E.g. the widespread starvation among workers and farmers at the beginning of the industrial revolution in Europe. The depression following the replacement of craft labor with factory labor, and small farmers with factory farming (and consequent environmental disasters, e.g. the 'dustbowl') in the 1920's. The layoffs of the 1970's and 1980's due to automation and information automation, now completely documented. The current displacement in Russia.

Almost always exacerbated by the incompetence/corruption of government, of course, a recent notable exception being the economic transition in China. In our current relatively minor case the culprit is the Fed, which has watched the world-wide economy, including the US, slowing for a year now without doing anything except talking about *raising* rates.

>>>No, the market tries to SELL the future; predictions are too accountable later on.

Explain.

Cheers,
Chaz
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