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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory
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To: ild who wrote (18308)10/28/2004 8:16:43 AM
From: Kailash   of 110194
 
Marc Faber:

"Once the Republican National Convention (Aug 30th to Sept 2nd) is concluded, the market will likely cast its vote as to the outcome of the election.

History has shown that you want to go with whichever trend becomes dominant following Labor Day'. In most election years, a rally got underway sometime in August and, therefore, given the current oversold position of the stock market the near term odds do not particularly favor to be heavily short the stock markets."

Well, the Dow rose for a few days after Faber wrote his piece on September 2nd, and then dropped nearly 700 point over the next few weeks, until the turn a couple of days ago. He would have done fine shorting "the near term".

As for the idea of the market voting, the odds favor a Bush defeat -- the market has been trending down for months. Any such "vote" will have to be attributed to the market by us mortals, however -- and I pass.

Cheers,
K
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