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Non-Tech : Amati investors
AMTX 1.585+14.0%Jan 2 9:30 AM EST
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To: pat mudge who wrote (20828)7/4/1997 5:49:00 PM
From: Andreas Helke   of 31386
 
[Amati in 2001]

I did just calculate what size Amati would get if it grew like Ascend starting next year. Ascend grew its revenues a little bit more than 200%/year for the last 3 years. If we assume that Amati starts with $20 million of revenues in 1998 and then grows 200%/year for 3 years we end up with $540 million of revenue in 2001. This would represent 10% of the ADSL market assumed in the Siemens press release. If we take a price/sales ratio of 5 we would have a market cap of $2.5 billion for Amati in 2001. That would represent a market cap growth of 90%/year for 4 years. The growth of the share price would be less than that because we would have quite a bit of dilution from the equity financing required to achieve such a growth rate. It is of course a very optimistic assumption that Amati can achieve Ascends growth rate.

Andreas
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