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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II
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To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (20837)10/29/2002 9:26:53 AM
From: ItsAllCyclical   of 36161
 
>> I vigorously and strongly disagree on trade balance
a cheaper dollar will do very little to repair the balance of our current account deficit <<

Hadn't really thought about it like that since every article I've ever read on the matter talks about the Dollar needing to come down to improve the trade deficit. It's just taken as conventional wisdom. However, as you point out the Dollar has come down substantially already with no improvement in the decifit. I do think things would be worse for the likes of IBM, Microsoft, DELL, Deere etc if the Dollar stayed at it's old highs though. But you're right the benefits from a weaker Dollar may not come to pass or at the very least may be muted (what we have seen so far).

Great post. Keep up the contrarian thinking.
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