Unmanned Aerial Vehicles
Oct. 10, 2002
While much has been made of the threat that Iraq's ballistic missile or nuclear programs may pose to the Middle East, recently there has been growing discussion of a less-technical way Baghdad could deliver chemical or biological agents: through unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). Specifically mentioned in U.S. President George W. Bush's speech to the nation on Oct. 7, 2002, was recent intelligence analysis determining that: "Iraq has a growing fleet of manned and unmanned aerial vehicles that could be used to disperse chemical and biological weapons across broad areas." The vehicle that has received the most amount of attention is the Czech L-29 Delfin "Mayo" jet trainer.
The L-29, first built by Czechoslovakia in 1955, was the Iron Curtain version of the Cessna. The single-engine, dual-seated plane is a basic flight trainer for novices. Czech aerospace firm Aero Vodochody sold Iraq 78 L-29s during the late 1960s; it later sold 91 of follow-up version, the L-39, in the early 1980s. The L-29 can carry two bombs weighing 100 kilograms or four rockets in its two rocket-throwers. According to the Czech Air Force web site, it is 10.8 meters long, reaches 3.1 meters high, has a maximum speed of 231 kilometers per hour, has a practical flight ceiling of 10,900 meters and can, at most, range 1350 kilometers. If it were to be modified into a UAV, it would be able to fly at higher altitudes and farther than the U.S. Predator (which is 8.22 meters long, 2.1 meters high, and can reach top speeds of 135 miles per hour, range up to 454 miles, and has a ceiling of 7620 meters).
Analysts believe that Iraq has been working on converting manned planes into UAVs since before the Gulf War. Czech aviation specialists are split on how effective that would be. According to Jiri Rajlich at the Czech Military History Institute, "There is no problem converting the Delfin to a radio-controlled aircraft. It is a question of money." Others think that while it might be technically feasible, guiding the aircraft through appropriate altitudes for the terrain might prove sticky. And the president of the Czech Association of Aviation Manufacturers, Milan Holl, warns that because many of the L-29s are well into their fourth decade, "only a quarter of the aircraft which were sold to Iraq are in service."
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Iraq, at least, is willing to see how well the L-29 would work as a UAV. When the United Nations was still allowed to inspect Iraq's weapons facilities, inspectors heard rumors of a UAV that had been modified to deliver CBW. On Dec. 17, 1998, during the end of Operation Desert Fox, a British missile blew open a hangar to expose at least 12 UAVs. These aircraft had spray nozzles and wing-mounted tanks that feasibly could be used to distribute chemical or biological agents. Not all were destroyed. Two years later, surveillance photos caught what looked to be L-29s undergoing flight tests.
The CIA believes that Iraq intends to use the converted L-29s to deliver biological agents, noting that before the Gulf War, Baghdad had successfully tested aircraft-mounted spray tanks that could discharge 2,000 liters of an anthrax simulant. Helpful to the Iraq CBW program are two devices it adapted from existing technologies: the Zubaidy aerosol sprayer (modified from its original crop-dusting function) and an aircraft "drop tank" that was initially created to hold additional fuel but now allegedly has a sprayer for chemical/biological agents. The latter is rather troubling because some have been adapted for Iraq's best fighter plane, the F-1 Mirage, and can carry over 500 gallons of payload per tank.
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A modified L-29 UAV is not the most effective way to distribute chemical/biological agents. MiG-21s and helicopters have been examined as possibilities, and of course there always are Iraq's short-range ballistic missiles. The L-29 is vulnerable due to its relatively slow speed, adverse reaction to high temperatures, and need to fly low to fully discharge its payloads. And the chemical/biological agents are best dispersed under very specific weather conditions; otherwise, they may be rendered harmless. But the L-29's low price (used ones go for $100,000 on the open market) and restrictions placed on its missile program make experimenting with UAVs a viable option for Iraq.
Sources
Czech Air Force, "L-29 Fact Sheet," czechairforce.cz.
"Iraq said to be developing L-29 Delfin into heavy payload UAV," Defense & Foreign Affairs' Strategic Policy, September 2001.
Joby Warrick, "Uncertain ability to deliver a blow; Iraq cobbles together weapons systems with mixed results, experts say," The Washington Post, Sept. 5, 2002.
Magnus Bennett, "Iraqi L-29s could easily be weapons, aviation experts say," Aerospace Daily, Sept. 27, 2002.
"Main points of Bush speech on Iraq," Agence France-Presse, Oct. 8, 2002.
"Modifying Czech light aircraft into unmanned plane not difficult - experts," CTK news agency (Prague) via BBC Monitoring Europe, Sept. 24, 2002.
Rich Tuttle, "Iraq seen maintaining interest in UAV to carry weapons," Aerospace Daily, March 6, 2001.
Rich Tuttle, "Specialist: lax laws on UAV exports could lead to new threat against U.S.," Aerospace Daily, Sept. 19, 2001.
Tony Harnden, "Bush warns of chemical attacks on the US," The Daily Telegraph, Oct. 8, 2002.
United States Central Intelligence Agency, "Iraq's weapons of mass destruction programs," October 2002. cia.gov.
Victoria Samson
CDI Research Associate
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