George, some folks I believe have misunderstood my gold position. I'm a LT bull.
However we all have our methods and in regard to TA I've been using EW counts (supplemented with other). My preferred count has in a 2 of 5 sequence down, or 'getting there'. My alternate count may have us in an 'up'.
I'm in about 10% and maybe should be a little higher, but if the 2 of 5 turns out to be valid there could be a decent drop from here. OTOH if the 'up' is correct we need to break through some fib figure I care not to mention, whence I would add (and wished I had added more earlier).
So far these last few days things have went exactly per my preferred count.
For non EW'ers I think the key is to observe the depths of the next pullback, which may have started. If it (XAU) doesn't appear to go much lower than 60 during this pullback, I probably turn pretty bullish, before my EW sequence completes.
Gut still tells me gold needs a good 'hit', to make a nice low, which I don't expect to last long. But gut isn't the thing to always use.
To ramble on I also think this thread is a little too bullish (not to criticize). I remember when gold started up last year, very well. I was really depressed with gold at the time, and the Naz smoking, but fortunately had the insight to hang in there (60% in gold). I think most on the this thread were in similar straits.
As for the Rydex indicators you are correct - it is a matter of interpretation but they are getting 'in the area' to turn more bullish. Things like the Rydex and other sentiment indicator used in decisionpoint confirm - you make your best buys when things are heavily discounted. |
