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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory
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To: BSGrinder who wrote (20869)10/28/2004 7:01:31 PM
From: russwinter   of 110194
 
Blumenthal tackles cell phone only users:

mysterypollster.com

How likely are these differences to cause error in the political polls?

We could calculate the "coverage error" that results from excluding wireless-only adults from political polls if we knew two things: (1) How the vote preferences of wireless only adults differ from those with working landlines and (2) the percentage of all likely voters with only wireless service. Unfortunately, both numbers are unknown.

Still, assume for the sake of argument that wireless adults are 5% of the electorate, that a survey of wired households shows a 48%-48% tie and that the missing wireless-only voters prefer John Kerry by a 20-point margin (58% to 38% - a pure but plausible guess based on the numbers for renters, low income, etc). If we were able to include the wireless only adults, it would change the overall preference by only one point - Kerry would lead 48.5% to 47.5%.

Keep in mind that two factors will work to reduce this small potential error: Wireless-only voters are likely to turn out at a lesser rate than those with wired phones, and pollsters typically weight to make up for overall differences in gender, age, race and education.
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