Jim,
I appreciate your post. I don't believe mgmt is actively trying to depress the stock. I just don't think they have a strong incentive to push it higher at this juncture, for to do so would reduce whatever margin exists between the current share price and the tender price. If the deal number is 8 times sales, that is a acquisition price of about 48-50/share. If ASND is at 24-25, that is double. If ASND is at 35, that is only a 13 point increase.
Also, about the recent insider sales: Every insider knows full well that 4Q will be good relative to 3Q and that, other things being equal, the analysts will begin to upgrade ASND towards the latter part of the 4Q to reflect this fact. That being the case, it made no sense for insiders to sell at what they perceived to be the low (they repriced employee options at about the same price they sold). (Remember, the recent NW sell-off happened just after or at worst, during, the insider sales.) Insiders sold because they could not do so at some later point, and they wanted a little liquidity.
Also, I think the significance of the employee stock option repricing is being discounted far too much. That was a real perceived bottom, or that was the latest that the repricing could occur relative to an acquisition (maybe 30 days later). Insiders did not reprice thinking that a much deeper bottom was on the way.
Gary Korn |
