Oh my how this pains me. But after reading on I have noticed that you indeed have strong influence on this thread. Therefore I suppose it's only fair to point out areas where I think some thoughts may have been overlooked.
1. The LU-ASND does not have 45% overlap of products. LU has less than $100
million in annual revenues from remote access, most of that in PortMaster3's sold to
small ISPs, which rarely buy ASND equipment anymore. Yurie now has revenues
of about $150 million which overlaps with the Sahara product from ASND which
has revenues of about $25 million. The MX1000 ATM switch is a dog and has not
shipped for revenue yet. I count about $125 million in "overlap" which is not 45% of
any statistic I can find. Totally irrelevant.
No mention of SS7/OSS given Stratus
No mention of xDSL solutions.
MX1000 is shipping and is available - check their web-site.... AND, what about Definity ATM? Also, Packetstar120 is not Yurie so you have add this in as well..
PacketStar vs IP Navigator
I would say that you're right, that ASND does not overlap LU to the tune of 45%...but perhaps LU overlaps ASND by that much...or maybe close to that much.
If any of you talked to a reasonable sampling of
ASND employees, you'd realize that a very large percentage are extremely excited
to join LU, already accustomed to doing so through their existing partnership, and
united with their LU bretheren in their common hatred of Cisco. Don't expect LU to
teeter around like a drunk while Cisco steals all their accounts and don't expect
teams of disillusioned ASND engineers to show up at 350 Tasman road begging for
employment. It is not going to happen.
First, even Yahoo has the right address. I think this speaks volumes about numbers. As I said in a previous post of mine, I think citing specific numbers is a double-edged sword. It can make you look good..but it can make you look bad as well. You throw out numbers like you actually have data that no one else in the world has. I know, like you do, that most of your numbers are fabricated....but still I have to hand it to you....you are good. ;) Now, as for ASND employee's leaving. There will be some that leave and there will be some that stay. There is no doubt that working for LU will be different. Those that liked the way things were may leave...and yes, they may even go to the enemy!!!
3. What you can expect. LU and Cisco will increasingly compete head to head for
carrier data accounts - ATM, remote access, high-end routers. Believe it or not, the
LU/ASND combination sells 50% more data equipment to carriers than Cisco.
Both have been gaining share rapidly and will likely continue to do so. This will be a
high growth market and both companies will do well - as will NT, maybe NN.
OK... 50% more? Where are you number to back this up. First you say that ASND and LU have no product overlap then you say they collectively sell 50% more data equipment. Well, given that Cisco's revenue's for carriers are equall (actually) more than ASND's total revenues then LU is selling many more carriers data equipment than end Lucent knows about.
In number 4. You're numbers are wrong. We went over this one before. You say Cisco does $1.2B in carriers sales. NOT! You are right however Cisco does own the enterprise.
Finally I agree that going forward LU/ASND and CSCO will compete more and more. It's gonna be great and both companies will do very VERY well. You almost can't lose investing in either one. Each company has an advantage and it's going to be interesting to see how the two execute. LU has great experience and contacts in the carrier market and understands the existing "old-world" circuit switched telephony networks. CSCO however has the experience and technology required to make multiservice on the "new-world" packet networks happen today. Their challenge will be building better contacts with traditional service providers and moving the market sooner rather than later. Make no mistake cisco is there today...albeit with a few baby steps to go. If Cisco moves this market today LU will be playing catch up. LU's job, slow the process and the decision making until they can catch up. So, who field are we playing on?
OG |
