SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Biotech / Medical : Agouron Pharmaceuticals (AGPH)
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  
To: sam who wrote (2099)10/4/1997 2:58:00 PM
From: BarryH   of 6136
 
One way to find out is to look at comps..other companies have cancer drugs in the pipeline..but no Phase 3 results.. Market caps for these sorts of companies are in the $100MM to $400MM range..

I perrsonally give AGPH alot of credit in it's ability to commercialize Viracept..alot of biotechs never really go beyong being a research house..How much? Maybe $200MM in market cap

The rest of the present valuation comes from sales of Viracept ($700MM to $1BB)..which I think understates it's real worth by at least 50%..maybe 100%..

So..sans Viracept..I put put AGPH's stock price somewhere between 10 and 20.

Now as for the pipeline..I understand that they a cancer drug in Phase 3's for 4 or 5 indications...But there's alot I don't know about it..
Chances are this drug will become one of the arsenal of cancer fighting agents..with more modest sales and longer ramp up times..
Also, I believe that the sucess rate for Phase 3's are 70% for large pharma and 50% for startups..so the clinicals are hardly a sure thing

If AGPH is coming out with a cancer treatment that is revolutionary, and not incremental, please let me know. I've seem only one approach that I'd consider "revolutionary" recently in this area..and that was by IMNX which got good Phase I results last July..ie. it didn't kill anyone and they showed the intended response..in principle..but it's only phase I..and I put the chances of it working out at 10-20%

BarryH
Report TOU ViolationShare This Post
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  

HomeMailHotSubjectMarksPeopleMarksKeepersSettings
Terms Of UseContact UsCopyright/IP PolicyPrivacy PolicyAbout UsFAQAdvertise on SI
© 2025 Knight Sac Media.  Data provided by Twelve Data, Alpha Vantage, and CityFALCON News