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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing

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To: Madharry who wrote (21010)3/31/2005 7:50:03 PM
From: Paul Senior  Read Replies (2) of 78899
 
ELN: Yes, two big percentage drops for a total of about 70-80% loss. That possibility is why I am very, very diversified. Even being diversified just among several subsectors of the drug/healthcare sector is not enough. Stockholders here have seen very poor performance for many of the generic/big pharma/medical device companies over the past few years. Today, for example, several heretofore well-regarded high performing orthopedic stocks took a big hit on the feds looking for illegal pricing practices. (I have Stryker. ouch!)

I'm betting ELN will rise from the dead as it has in the past. Sometimes these proscribed drugs (aside: I mean proscribed as in 'denounced & condemmed' - not "prescribed") are resurrected. (Perhaps though not likely with Tysabri, according to some media reports.) Also, I find it hard to believe that ELN, even with all its research and financial problems, doesn't have potential with other drugs in its pipeline. Although...
"According to a note released by Smith Barney, profitability will now be delayed until 2009."

Stock might drop to 1 or lower ---again. At that point, the percentage drop is huge, even from the current $3.24. For me though, the big money's already been lost. A 3 point drop isn't going to be that significant dollar-wise to the losses I've already incurred.

I can take a long-term capital tax loss anytime with ELN. I'll wait a bit to see if the stock stabilizes and at what price that might be. I might sell and buy back 31 days later.
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