>the current fixed disk technology will not be around in 5 years<
Art, I have come around myself to start fearing Terastor long term, 3 to 5 years from now. As Groves of Intel says, "Only the Paranoid Survive", and I've decided to be paranoid (not panicky!) and not just pooh pooh competition. It appears Terastor's tech has a good chance in the opinions of several storage tech consultants/forecasters etc to supplant several existing technologies. Hard drives are certainly NOT on the list for the first to feel the pinch, but I've read at least 2 opinions from purported industry experts or prognosticators that disk drives could be a thing of the past 3 to 5 years out if Terastor's technology can make the customary leaps and bounds in technology that all storage devices make regularly.
As I said, I'm being paranoid, not panicky.
This could severely limit the long term potential of toroheads and KM if true, but on the other hand, remember Bramson's repeated statement, "Ampex has many other technologies other than keepered media. Don't think of us solely as the "keepered media company"."
Hard to say what the landscape will be like 5 years from now, as the pace of techno change is only increasing rapidly. In some ways this plays into AXC's hands, because their technology has traditionally been so cutting edge they've never profited from their patents which have literally been decades ahead of their time- witness their invention of MR in 1968!
On the other hand, its almost such now that you have to worry about hundreds of startups which could be brewing the killer technology in their garage!? Witness Velocidata and Ampex, tiny specks in the big disk drive makers eyes, but here they may have the supplanter of MR. See Investors Business Daily's computer & tech page of yesterday for an interesting commentary on the surprisingly swift switch to MR the disk drive industry is making. Read Rite is in play because applied magnetics has no MR capabilities and thus is having to buy their way into the MR market.
All food for thought. either way, AXC is undervalued here. The tektronix deal is higher volume, lower margin, but overall great for the company! |
