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Technology Stocks : LHSP: Lernout En Hauspie
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To: D.B. Cooper who wrote (2103)4/2/2000 7:58:00 PM
From: greedsgd_2000   of 2467
 
Investing in Gorillas like CSCO and INTC may be important, however, their returns are only a fraction - of the returns on an investment made in a newly emerging (and little known) gorilla.

Lets use this example -you believe an investment in JDS(uniphase)- in the summer of 1999 (an emerging gorilla) - comparable to an investment in a mature gorilla like CSCO (that the masses of investors have all heard about)?

Emerging gorillas if identified early - will generally far exceed the return of a mature well identified Gorilla.

What are the odds of CSCO increasing its cap by a factor of 10 over the next 18 months - ans: virtually zero. How about increasing its cap by a factor of 4 over the next 18 months? My guess is less than 5% - unless many other companies go multi trillion dollar plus on the caps.

If CSCO's cap merely doubles it goes to 1 trillion cap status - a possibility, and sure to generate some headlines due to its unique status -but that is the point. ITS UPSIDE BY VIRTUAL OF MATURITY (and investor awareness) IS LIMITED RELATIVE TO EMERGING IMMATURE GORILLAS (having low investor awareness).

CSCO and an even JDSU at this point(to a lesser extent perhaps) are both mature well identified Gorilla's with arguably a good portion of their future earnings well discounted into their current prices.
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