I'll make this general for any cable vs. voice carrier market
With Big-Redmond, its hard to say because they change so fast.
Keep in mind several items:
Microsoft is mostly a software and service company
MS/Gates is heavily invested in Project Iridium (wireless/satellite comm)
MS is even more heavily invested in Comcast
Comcast is #3 (I believe) in the cable industry
The RBOC/LEC market makes much greater margins than Cable service
TCI is already working hard to put up cable modem tech. So is
Time-Warner, the San Diego trial someone mentioned just earlier.
Almost all cable infrastructure has to be replaced to provide higher
end digital cable/data service cable networks. This is very expensive
to do in the short hop without significant investment of the likes
of Microsoft's.
LECs have the advantage in many areas, especially those who do
not sell dry copper lines within their area at all (like USWest).
This means that the LEC can deploy ADSL at their choice. However
LECs, CLECs and CAPs do not have the fiber deployment to support
VDSL so they are in the same boat for part of the loop (Fiber to the
Curb) as cable vendors.
Both cable and VDSL based networks will need a new plant in the
areas they service to be able to provide this kind of service and
so far only the cable service providers have made semi-serious
advancements towards such an infrastructure. In the ADSL/VDSL
arena in the US, the phone companies excepting Pac Bell are not
willingly moving as fast to deploy ADSL/VDSL until they see
serious market loss in data service. This is because of two things:
they don't want to interrupt their current very profitable
local loop services (T1,T3,etc) market; second, although they
know about providing voice services, that is a different market
than providing broadcast video.
However, the LECs are closer to understanding the tv industry
than the cable industry is closer to understanding the data network
world.
Microsoft has some limited expertise in the world of LAN data
networks not anything larger. But the set-top device has been a
plan of Gates' since 1995 at least. Even though they have been
sidetracked with the Simply Interactive PC (SIPC) project, it
is not gone. The NetPC industry which they are just beginning
doesn't seem to have affected many people the least. MS' interests
still lies in providing the end-station consumer framework in
everything (desktop computers, handhelds, group servers, set-top
boxes, consumer electronics devices).
The implication for the VDSL market is that Microsoft could create
a standard for cable modems integrated into PC-like set-top-boxes.
That is severe. But the fact that microsoft's opinion changes with
the wind could as easily have them integrate DSL technology in it
too. My guess is that the will build both and then later drop the
one which doesn't do as well. In other words Microsoft will
affect the growth of the ADSL/VDSL market as well as the cable
modem industry. However, with the heavy investment, they will push
for cable modems now and with their marketing strategies try and
slash DSL as best they can. Keep in mind that their marketing tactics
aren't always successful although very often they are.
Whew. Hope that helps. |
