GOOD article, Casey - it obviously took a lot of time and it is a real service to the thread.
My questions center on the costs of the VRD (esp. the $125K for Comanche, and the $250K for Apache). There are two factors which cause me to be skeptical of such high sales prices. First, Microvision has concentrated much effort on reducing the size and cost of the VRD, preferring, I believe, to sell 100 million units at $200 per, rather than 100,000 units at $20,000. Batch manufacturing will help them reach this goal. Second, the trend in procurement is to use commercial, "off-the-shelf" components whenever possible, and assuming reasonable budgets 4-5 years down the road (by which time Microvision will have commercial personal VRD displays for sale at Wal-Mart), there will be great resistance to paying "salon" prices for VRD.
These two factors, it seems to me, make it unlikely that Microvision will garner anything like the per unit costs you mention for the VRD, unless they get the whole job, not just the chance to supply VRD units to someone like Boeing. (Yes, I know that Microvision is the prime in the VCOP contract, but that is an R&D effort only at this stage, and I am not aware that Microvision has expertise running much beyond the VRD units themselves.)
I agree with your estimates of the probability of the Army contract awards, and also think we will get some others from the Navy and the USAF. Plus, the Brits know a good thing when they see it. Still, I think Microvision's DOD contracts are fulfilling the traditional "learning curve" function for new technology, and that the company's long-term growth prospects will be derived mainly from the civilian market. |
