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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates

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To: tayspop729 who wrote (21034)	3/23/2000 1:38:00 AM
From: FLSTF97	of 54805

Fuel Cells Scott you are probably more correct on this point than we will ever know. First let me begin by saying that although I've made several posts previously denigrating the near term chances for fuel cells, I do believe that someday they may proliferate. The problem they will have in the near term will be the machinations of large entrenched businesses together with local governments. This puts them in the category of health care companies in that the efficacy of their products does not necessarily determine their success. Here is a real scenario that is being played out in Germany (and if they succeed will tilt the European playing field). Diamler is pushing a concept that has a fuel cell coupled with an onboard chemical factory to crack methanol to liberate the H2. Their logic is that current gas stations can be converted( the cost will be huge) to deliver methanol . The general public considers pure H2 as too dangerous(I would argue that methanol is more dangerous) so they want to avoid it. Diamler has succeeded in manipulating an independent advisory board that will recommend to the Government this as the long term solution with an LPG alternative fuel intermediate solution. It is likely that the gov. will then enact taxation laws to "enforce" this and will exert pressure on desenting firms to get in line (which they will). Any objective economic, technical, or environmental analysis of this scenario would show it to be virtually the worst choice possible. Clearly Diamler has some ulterior motive than just being ahead in building quasi mobile crackers. Nevertheless I hope somebody does do a project hunt in this area. One question that needs to be addressed to determine when/if a tornado may occur is the fuel source distribution system. Currently other than natural gas and gasoline there are no practical distribution networks. FATBOY

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