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Strategies & Market Trends : Sharck Soup

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To: J.B.C. who wrote (21093)	5/7/2001 11:19:09 PM
From: American Spirit	of 37746

I've told you I'm bearish in some ways. I bought oil my last two buys. What does that tell you? And my biggest holdings are Baby Bells which are defensive in nature. I also expect a lowish summer if energy prices climb and a real buying opportunity at that point. So I plan to be ready with cash when and if it happens. In techs I'm a bottom-feeding bottom-picking cheap shopper. I never chase stocks and never buy the ones that are already up. I got caught with a few falling knives last year but those days are over. Downside is quite limited at this point in the stocks I own. No one's expecting the high times again, but we have definitely been overdue for a upside tech correction and we've been getting it. I think there's enough left to get us to Naz 2350 now with the help of The Fed. Maybe not 2450 as I had hoped though. The energy prices are putting a dampener on things now. But despite any bad news out there, do not fight the Fed. That wasn't in the news today but the spin will move toward that story very soon and it will dominate for 3-4 days. Worst case, we fluctuate around these levels. If we go lower after the Fed cut then we make a run later in the year for the higher levels assumign recovery is okay by 4th Q. In the meantime interest rates could go to 3%. I think we have at least one more big tech rally day before the Fed cut and very little mass selling this week unless CSCO drops a stink bomb. But don't count CSCO out yet. Chambers have have talked down the situation in order to be able to surprise. A smart CEO would do that. Anyway no one's expecting a miracle from CSCO. They're in a hard-hit sector. By end of week, no one is going short into the Fed. Not unless there's already been a very nice 2-day rally. Afterall, why short going in at Naz 2150 (modest level) when you can wait until afterward when many traders will bail? Traders who are long are not going to bail this early before the Fed meeting either. They know there's upside between here and there and they want it. I'll be just as happy if Baby Bells and oils rally now instead of techs. They are 2/3 of my portfolio. But mark my words there IS going to be a rally. The only question is will the CSCO's of the world participate or be left behind? I expect CSCO to be shorted into their earnings and go down tomorrow. But that may be a riskier short tham you think.

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