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Technology Stocks : XM Satellite Radio Holdings Inc. (XMSR)
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To: i-node who wrote (2115)1/23/2006 7:50:49 AM
From: rrufff   of 3386
 
In October 2004, you posted your prediction for numbers. It's pitiful and, of course, as I pointed out before, I doubt that Stern gets no more net adds over the next 5 years.

That said, you totally overestimate the effect of Stern. Stern WILL NOT bring "several million" listeners. He has a weekly listenership of something like 12M. A small fraction of those will pay to hear him -- 10%, 15% if they're lucky. There is a huge difference between getting it for free and having to pay for it. And most of those aren't going to jump at once. My guess is Sirius will receive a Q4'05 pop of 250K subs. There *ARE* some people who will pay for his brand of sophomoric humor, but those numbers may be surprisingly low.

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