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Technology Stocks : Trimble Navigation

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Jan 7 3:59 PM EST

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To: arun gera who wrote (2121)	1/22/1998 4:15:00 PM
From: Yin Shih	of 3506

More thoughts on auto collision avoidance - The advantage to active radar/lidar based systems is that they provide immediate benefit to the driver that paid money to put the device into the car. That is they are not dependent on most/all other cars having it installed. To be useful a GPS based collision avoidance system would require that almost all cars be outfitted and that such cars "network" with or "broadcast" to their neighbors so that each car can compare its position and velocity vector with others to check for possible collision. Thus the payback to a driver is deferred until a large installed base is achieved. On the other hand GPS based collision systems can be smart enough to figure out the best avoidance strategy, whereas a radar/lidar based system is going to have less information to work with and so basic systems can only warn of imminent collision or excessive proximity, leaving it up to the driver to figure out what to do in a fraction of a second. So perhaps a merged system does make some sense to offer both immediate and long term benefits. In the aviation industry there is TCAS (traffic collision advisory system) which the airliners generally have and which the general aviation planes generally don't have. Each plane already broadcasts a beacon code for ATC to use and a TCAS system takes advantage of that existing signal to monitor for collision possibilities. Even with the existing signal, these boxes cost $8K-12K for small planes and much more than that for airliners. These boxes are far from perfect right now. An example is a near-mid-air event near Burbank California recently, where a commuter jet got a TCAS alert and a climb advisory. While executing this, the commuter came within 100 feet of a second airplane that had been above the first one. These kinds of problems make for big liability nightmares. Yin

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