U.S. COMPOSITE INDEXES FOR AUGUST 2001
The Conference Board announced today that the U.S. leading index decreased 0.3 percent, the coincident index remained flat, and the lagging index decreased 0.3 percent in August. The composite indexes and their components suggest weakening conditions in the U.S. economy going into the end of the third quarter, just prior to the attack on September 11, 2001.
The drop in the leading index in August was broad-based. This drop reflects the fact that the strength in the policy and expectations' components over the past several months had not yet translated into improved economic conditions.
Holding steady in August, the coincident index remains relatively flat.
The six-month diffusion indexes for both the leading and coincident index have been persistently indicating widespread weakness in the U.S. economy since last year.
LEADING INDICATORS. Seven of the ten indicators that make up the leading index decreased in August. The negative contributors to the leading index - from the largest negative contributor to the smallest - include average weekly manufacturing hours, index of consumer expectations, stock prices, vendor performance, interest rate spread, average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance and building permits. Money supply* was the only positive contributor to the index, while manufacturers' new orders for nondefense capital goods* and manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods and materials* held steady for the month of August.
The leading index now stands at 109.6 (1996=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.4 percent in July and increased 0.2 percent in June. During the six-month span through July, the leading index increased 0.6 percent, with three of the ten components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 30 percent).
globalindicators.org |
