How to Lie With Numbers
By Steve Verdon on Steve Verdon
Over at Think Progress we have a stellar example of lying with numbers, this time budget deficit numbers. The problem is that the budget numbers that are used in the post are nominal dollars. Correcting for inflation gives a much different picture (below are the top 20 deficits of all time excluding 2006 and correcting for inflation).
Year Defict CPI CPI/100 Real Deficit
1943 -54,554 17.3 0.173 -315,341
1944 -47,557 17.6 0.176 -270,210
1945 -47,553 18 0.18 -264,183
2004 -412,727 188.9 1.889 -218,490
1983 -207,802 99.6 0.996 -208,637
1992 -290,321 140.3 1.403 -206,929
2003 -377,585 184 1.84 -205,209
1986 -221,227 109.6 1.096 -201,849
1991 -269,238 136.2 1.362 -197,678
1985 -212,308 107.6 1.076 -197,312
1984 -185,367 103.9 1.039 -178,409
1993 -255,051 144.5 1.445 -176,506
1990 -221,036 130.7 1.307 -169,117
2005 -318,346 195.3 1.953 -163,004
1994 -203,186 148.2 1.482 -137,103
1982 -127,977 96.5 0.965 -132,619
1987 -149,730 113.6 1.136 -131,805
1988 -155,178 118.3 1.183 -131,173
1976 -73,732 56.9 0.569 -129,582
In other words, the projected deficit for 2006 would come in around 16th (note that there is no projected CPI for 2006 and using the 2005 value of 195.3 and the $296 billion, the adjusted deficit is about $151 billion). If we looked only at peace time deficits Bush would have the highest real deficit. Still the current deficit would rank only 12th, not 4th.
One commenter pointed this problem of adjusting for inflation out…but no such luck in terms of reporting the more accurate numbers.
Kos of course eats it up with a spoon.
outsidethebeltway.com
thinkprogress.org
dailykos.com |
