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Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy?
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To: Paul Fiondella who wrote (21427)3/26/1998 3:16:00 PM
From: dwight vickers   of 42771
 
(Off Topic)

Paul,

Very insightful comments.

Markets, be they stock, real estate, collectibles, whatever, need correcting. The evaporation of liquidity is part of the cycle. It always comes as a surprise to the largest group of investors.

Uncorrected markets and economies, like we have now, need major readjustments. The corrections wipe out all the unproductive investments made during boom times when investors and banks "learn" to extrapolate into the future, the current favorable conditions.

Loans and investments that would never be made during bad (even normal) economic times suddenly make "sense" when times are good.

Wait to see all of the empty stores and office buildings during the next recession.

While I'm not 100% in cash, I have a large position. I plan to use that when value appears. Whether that means stock market we'll only know in time.

I still think that there is a good chance that we get the blowoff first. Maybe 2000 points in a matter of days. If it doesn't end that way, it may mean just a run of the mill 25% bear market decline.

Then the big one after new highs.

Wish I knew. One thing I do know is that no one believes it can happen. Even the bears are looking for only a 10% decline.

Insiders believe. 144's were filed at staggering levels in March. The February actual transactions have started to show heavy selling. Last weeks numbers were more than double the amount of what is considered to be a normal number of sales vs. buys.

Overwhelming bullish sentiment means we're close to something. Whether it's a wave 5 or wave 3 top is the question.

Good luck and stay in touch,

Dwight
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