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Biotech / Medical : VD's Model Portfolio & Discussion Thread
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To: biowa who wrote (2143)8/22/1997 7:09:00 PM
From: Vector1   of 9719
 
Call me an optimist but i think both are going to happen. I just wish I knew when.

I do think the GLFD deal is significant for the industry especially if its followed by a major LGND deal on Diabetes. I also think that GLFD is significanly undervalued. The markets they are attacking are huge (as in billions) and there are few competitors. VRTX is one and GENZL/DCRN JV is another, although their injection of pig cells is far less ellegant than small molecules which can pass the blood brain barrier.

If you really don't think GLFD is a good play we should have a full discussion because i am seriously considering adding it to the model for the following reasons:

1. The market for Parkinsons and Alzhiemers is HUGE. We are talking multi- billion dollar drug.

2. AMGN is a very well run company and will be highly focussed on Neuroimmunophilin Ligands since it will be the key element of their pipline.

3.You can take it to the bank that AMGN has seen the primate study results due out in Sept. I'll bet anyone a jar of peanut butter they are good. Very good.

4. All of the AMGN analysts are going to be following the developments very closely. You can bet a number will pick up GLFD. They may as well leverage thier time.

5. There were a number of parties interested in these compounds. AMGN was the high bidder. I would be surprised if GLFD's royalties are below 18%

6. Although off to a slow start, Gliadel is a solid product.

7. The company has an excellent advisory board led by Solomon Snyder who is a major intellect and a recognized leader in the field.

8. Given the size of the market there are very few competitors

9. The company had about $7 per share or $135 in cash before the before the deal. They are not going to run out of money.

V1
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