Now this being an
investment forum, I would appreciate your opinion on what would happen if the
1996 Telecom Act was rewritten and actually worked! Where do you speculate
money would be spent, or who would benefit the most, in the mad rush for
long distance telcos to get into local markets and local telcos to get into
long distance markets?
My guess is that the Telecom Act has worked too slowly to benefit the CLECs. The ILECs will be able to get a foothold in long distance simultaneously with the CLECs getting into local service, whereas the Act intended for the CLECs to get a head start. This benefits the fast moving ILECs (SBC/Ameritech and Bell Atlantic). Bell Atlantic will be first with authorization to offer long distance. I think Lucent is still the main supplier to the ILECs, and as long as they stick to their current plans to expand the copper/switched voice networks, Lucent will remain entrenched.
If the Supreme Court rules in favor of the CLECs, as appears likely, MCI Worldcom is an immediate beneficiary. WCOM's current strategy involves building out with SONET rings and renting loop distribution from the ILECs where necessary. They're already on the ground with MFS, and MCI's assets included a lot of rights-of-way throughout the country. Their big suppliers are Ascend, Nortel, and Ciena (it's unclear whether MCI's established relationships or Worldcom's established relationships will prevail). I think AT&T does not have a coherent strategy right now, so I would not bet the bank on them. It looks like Cisco will get a lot of work from AT&T's plan to build an end-to-end network with BT/Concert. I personally like Sprint's AON plan, and even though it's vaporware, if it succeeds, it's a home run. Cisco is the major supplier of that network too; Ciena may be able to take a big piece of the action as well. TLAB has a dicey relationship with Sprint. TLAB needed Ciena to bump up its technology in the next-generation multiplexer, DWDM. And that was a grand failure (I should know, I rode CIEN from 37 to 90, and back all the way to 8). If AON is scrapped, TLAB will have its cornerstone customer for years to come. If AON succeeds, it leaves TLAB adrift.
I am not a person with technical background, so take all my opinions with a grain of salt. (And I would be happy to be shown where I said something wrong.)
Doughboy. |
