CBS: Rudy Strengthens His National Polling Lead
CAPTAIN ED
This post will need multiple disclaimers. First, the CBS poll has had sampling issues in the past, and this one has a relatively small sample of Republican voters (only 302 respondents). Second, national polls do tell an important story, but not as important as state-by-state polling. Third, this poll got conducted over a weekend, which tends to skew polls more to the center and left.
Given that, CBS reports that Giuliani continues to strengthen his lead, and Fred Thompson may be falling back:
"According to a new CBS News poll out Monday, Rudy Giuliani retains a significant lead nationally among Republican primary voters in the race to become the party's presidential nominee.
In all, 38 percent of Republican primary voters favor the former New York City mayor, a slight increase from last month. Senator-turned-actor Fred Thompson is next; he's favored by 18 percent of Republican primary voters, a seven-point drop from last month. Thompson has yet to officially announce his candidacy.
The third choice, at 13 percent, is former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, who improved five points from one month ago. He was followed by Arizona Sen. John McCain, who came in at 12 percent."
Not only has Rudy picked up five points in the last month, half of that support comes from voters solely choosing Rudy because they like him. Forty-five percent select him for himself, even with some reservations. Only 8% choose him because they don't like anyone else.
Fred has dropped seven points, the biggest change in the poll. Romney moved up five to 13%, a good move but still behind the undeclared Fred. McCain dropped into a virtual tie with Romney at 12%.
Again, it's good news for Rudy -- but only if one finds the CBS poll reliable.
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