Strictly: Drilling II Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II

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To: ild who wrote (21549)	11/8/2002 10:50:58 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	of 36161

ild thanks for the bank derivatives link... JPM's leverage is off the charts compared to the other banks... the quote about "little room for error in their hedge book" is an understatement equal to saying the titanic had a little problem once it began taking on water. I'll be curious to see how these rumors pan out concerning JPM... whether illegal accounting issues exist with Enron, or WCOM, Russia and Argentina, or just the transfer of "under water" Gold derivatives - off the books is the issue. Semantics possibly come into play with JPM denying the gold trading losses... ie: a "loss" is not a "loss" untill you are forced to deliver, or cover...when, not if... someone isn't going to be able to deliver as a counter-party when/if Gold ramps and when/if those derivative counter-party domino's start falling...a ROGUE WAVE EVENT TSUNAMI of the historic proportion will be the result. The potential numbers involved here dwarf LTCM...that point can not be lost in the discussion. PS: It amazes me that the market doesn't seem to have priced in an actual physical War in Iraq ?!?!? - at best Saddam has some time to hide/transfer his WMD's, but unquestionably; we going to do a regime rotation and we will need to have ground troops involved to take him out and set up a new regime... and then there are those Oil Fields (vbg)...

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