re: SoundView Wireless Equipment Industry Update (Mobile Phones)
The 17 page report in PDF can be downloaded here:
research.soundview.com
The bulk of the text is also here:
Message 17858660
The overview (only) is below:
>> Mobile Phone Market: 2Q02 and Beyond
Matt Hoffman
Jennifer Baxter
Jason Willey
SoundView
August 8, 2002
Industry Net:
Mobile phone unit sales were better than expected in 2Q02, driven by net subscriber additions in Asian GSM markets. Market leader Nokia saw pressure from Motorola, our top pick, in 2Q02 and cut price to keep share. Pricing was flat overall in 1H02, although we expect it to rise in 2H02. We reiterate our 428 million 2002 sell-through number.
• Exiting 2Q02, we are reiterating our 428 million handset unit sell-through number for 2002, with minor modifications, and maintaining our outlook for 2003 at 450 million units. Our estimates are among the highest on the Street and remain above the forecasts of the major handset OEMs, which we believe are under-reporting the market to inflate share.
• 2Q handset growth was driven by above-expectation subscriber growth, especially in Asia, but was somewhat offset by lower churn (higher churn translates into higher handset sales). Replacement sales drive our outlook for 2H02.
• During the June quarter, Motorola clearly took market share and looks best positioned to grow its share in 2H02. Nokia also participated in the good 2Q02 market, but is fighting with an older entry-tier lineup. Both vendors, especially Motorola, exceeded our 2Q02 handset estimates handily.
• Our current checks at operators in Europe indicate they are wound up for a good 4Q02, based in part on enthusiasm for the new product cycle. Operators have low-cost GSM product available at subsidy-free prices while phones with color displays and packet data prop up the high end.
• GSM is the fastest growing technology globally, easily surpassing the growth rates of TDMA and CDMA. High-growth GSM countries China, India and Thailand still have relatively low penetration.
Reports from 2Q02 can be best characterized as in-line to slightly better than expected for the handset vendors. Results were, to a large extent, previewed through mid-quarter updates and affirmations of guidance during June, and therefore it was the outlook for 2H02 that was of greatest interest to investors in the July earnings season. On the surface, OEM forecasts for mobile phone shipments in 2002 generally appeared to be lowered, and the stocks suffered as a result. However, we view the "lowered outlooks" somewhat skeptically. The global handset market exceeded expectations in 2Q02, coming in slightly above our estimates, while handily beating most Street estimates. We believe the market will continue to outperform in the second half of 2002, and that 1H02 is being under-reported so that OEMs can make higher market share claims. Though we appreciate that overall revenue estimates for the OEMs were generally revised downward, the most significant reductions came in infrastructure and other businesses, not in their mobile phone businesses. <<
More here:
Message 17858660
The complete 17 page report with very detailed embeded tables in PDF can be downloaded here:
research.soundview.com
- Eric - |
