No: <Have you read science fiction that deals with the point of singularity? > But I have read some of what Ray Kurzweil has written over the years. I make my own deductions too which are my primary source of ideas.
<do you think the point of singularity will come and, if so, how soon?>
If we go back to first principles and work from there, we can see some teleological aspects to life in general and intelligence in particular. The idea that humans are special has always seemed odd to me given the obvious similarity we have to chimps and primates in general, not to mention a lot of other living things and the commonality of DNA among them all. Most people seem to think that people are the centre of life, or the purpose of it, or something along those lines when it's perfectly plain that our 1 kg of wet chemistry brain is pathetic at best and insignificant at worst. Except that it is the platform for the next stage of intelligence just as chimps are not too impressive intellectually but they provided the platform for people to develop. So in a way humans are the purpose of life in a narrow sense, of an ephemeral nature, just as chimps were the purpose of life a million years ago and so on back in time to the beginning.
Yes, the singularity will come to pass and sooner rather than later. Already in some respects it's a done deal. Memory is already better in Cyberspace than in brains. People can't remember their own intellectual and informative work as well as Google can. All those people are going to die, taking what they do remember with them. So there will only be the Cyberspace brain and whatever is being gained by people now. Increasingly, Cyberspace memory and information resource will [already has outstripped all of humans combined - near enough for government work]. But Cyberspace is not yet an intellectual monster. But it's gaining ground rapidly. The internet of things is the harbinger of the singularity. With a trillion sensors and processing power to manage them, Cyberspace is going to increasingly look like it's thinking. Already, Google's results have substantial associative power and look much like thinking, though it's only responding to prompts.
2037 seems to be the right time. Peak People, Peak Oil, Peak CO2 output, Peak human cognitive power and the "Negroponte switch" from wet chemistry to Cyberspace cognitive superiority will all be in 2037 according to me. Of course an H5N1 virus or good old chimpoid MAD [mutual assured destruction] catastrophic calamity could bring that date forward. Egypt is not looking so good and Preppers are worried about umpty $trillion debts, unemployment and general collapse Greek style, with Argentine process and Zimbabwe outcome.
2020 Little Ice Age [or maybe even reglaciation] will really push the process along.
Mqurice |
