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Pastimes : Hurricane and Severe Weather Tracking
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From: redfish8/26/2005 10:41:35 AM
   of 26020
 
1500 UTC 8/26/2005 HURRICANE KATRINA FORECAST #10

This is an independent product.

Katrina is very well-organized on satellite imagery and Doppler radar indicates that the area of hurricane force winds are expanding. Based upon this, maximum winds are increased to 70KT. Conditions are very favorable for development. Until it reaches the northern Gulf, there seems to be nothing to cause the storm to weaken. Therefore, peak intensity is now raised to 120KT, category 4 hurricane.

Guidance has shifted to the left. The 0Z guidance was poorly initialized as the ridge was too small. Guidance, including the RSMAS MM5 models seems to be converging on a final landfall near the Florida/Alabama Border. If the ridge remains in tact longer than expected by the guidance, then the hurricane could make it as far west as indicated by the GFDN and NOGAPS models, both of which bring the storm into Louisiana, near New Orleans. I am again making a slight left shift in the forecast track, though not as far as I would like to go. It is best to adjust the forecast track slowly, as the guidance did shift to New Orleans during Ivan, only to swing back.

Initial: (1200 UTC): 25.2N 81.9W 70KT
12 Hour: 25.2N 83.3W 80KT
24 Hour: 25.2N 84.6W 95KT
36 Hour: 25.6N 86.0W 110KT
48 Hour: 26.3N 87.1W 120KT
72 Hour: 30.5N 87.4W 110KT (at the coast)
USE WITH EXTREME CAUTION AS FOLLOWING IS SUBJECT TO LARGE ERROR
96 Hour: 35.0N 85.5W 30KT (inland)
Remnant Low

Next Forecast: 2100 UTC

Forecaster: Ortt

nwhhc.com
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