re: The W2F
<< World Wireless Forum, condemns industry analysis predicting 10 billion multi-media messages a month world-wide within two years, saying the correct figure will be closer to 200 million a month by 2004. >>
A couple of comments on this.
While they may exist, i haven't seen too many claims for MMS reaching 10 billion messages per month by 2004.
... 2005? Maybe. <g>
Then, their are the credentials of the W2F:
W2F knows what it's talking about when it talks about the dangers of hype. Until establishing it a year ago, its founders ran an online messaging forum called the WAP Group.
Slightly different cut at this below:
>> MMS Becomes a Hype, W2F Says
Marc van Impe
Nordic Wireless Watch
August 12, 2002
>> Study: Messaging Services Demand Is Overrated
The hype surrounding multi-media messaging services has been attacked by W2F, which claims that the worldwide market for those services will far less than current predictions and that MMS is in danger of becoming another over-hyped technology like WAP . The damning report, by World Wireless Forum, condemns industry analysis predicting 10 billion multi-media messages a month world-wide within two years, saying the correct figure will be closer to 200 million a month by 2004.
The report claims that it has not seen a working business model for MMS in the 16 countries it surveyed, which included Australia.
From talking to "key executives" among its 3,000 industry members, W2F, in London, predicts that MMS will be worth E 5.8 billion across 16 key markets: Australia, Canada, Finland, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Ireland, Israel, Italy, The Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, the U.K. and the U.S.
"We went into this looking for the foundations of the hype, and managed to trace most of it back to statements from the people furthest from the consumer -- the infrastructure providers," said Josh Dhaliwal, executive partner of W2F, in a statement. "In a saturated market they can't sell any more SMS products and so they have to push new services. But they're marketing the features, not the benefits to the consumer," he said.
Handset manufacturers, too, see lengthening renewal times and are keen to tempt operators with new features, Dhaliwal said. "We're not saying that MMS won't be a success, but it won't replace SMS. It won't be used for communication, it's more about entertainment, " Dhaliwal said. The report claims that 88 percent of the current market for SMS is consumed by youth under 22 years old, and that current handsets are well outside the price-range these consumers can afford.
W2F knows what it's talking about when it talks about the dangers of hype. Until establishing it a year ago, its founders ran an online messaging forum called the WAP Group. <<
- Eric - |
