From GERN's S-1 (the IPO prospectus):
Also, thank you for the great post, arun.
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MARKET OPPORTUNITY
Cancer and other age-related diseases and conditions, including skin aging,
atherosclerosis, osteoporosis and Alzheimer's disease, are difficult and costly
to diagnose and treat. In many cases, entirely effective means of treating and
diagnosing these diseases and conditions are not currently available. Further,
with the progressive "graying" of the population, the incidence of cancer and
other age-related diseases and conditions is expected to increase and to place a
steadily growing financial burden on the health care system. By the year 2010,
the over-65 population in the United States is expected to double to
approximately 64 million people and worldwide this population will increase to
over one billion. Significant improvements in the treatment and diagnosis of
these diseases and conditions are expected to offer attractive commercial
opportunities.
Cancer
The incidence of cancer increases dramatically with age. Eighty-five percent of
cancers diagnosed occur in people over the age of 50. People over the age of 65
have, on average, a ten times greater risk of dying from cancer than the
under-65 population.
Over ten million Americans alive today have a history of cancer and, in 1996, an estimated 1.4 million Americans will be diagnosed with cancers of the lung,colon, breast, prostate, pancreas, ovary, kidney, and bladder, along with lymphomas and leukemia and other cancers. Despite significant medical advances, cancer researchers and clinicians have had little impact on cancer mortality rates. In 1996, cancer is expected to claim 555,000 lives, or 25% of the total projected deaths in the United States. Within the next decade, largely because of population aging, cancer may become the leading cause of death in most industrialized nations.
Cancer therapy relies heavily on three treatment modalities: surgery, to remove
the tumor mass; radiation, to destroy tumor localized to a small region; and
chemotherapy, to eliminate tumor cells in diffuse parts of the body. Surgery is
an invasive procedure that may not remove the entire cancer, and the use of
radiation is limited to certain areas of the body. While drug therapies are less
invasive than surgery or radiation, many drugs used to treat cancer generally
attack rapidly dividing cells indiscriminately, damaging normal as well as
cancer cells. The current cancer drug therapy market in the United States is
over $3.8 billion having grown at an annual compounded rate in excess of 15%
between 1985 and 1995. Even when a drug is effective initially against a
particular cancer, it is usually not effective against other types of cancer
and, over time, the particular cancer can become resistant to that drug and
progress. The Company believes that a telomerase inhibitor could overcome these
limitations and potentially be a universal and highly specific drug therapy for
cancer.
Other Age-related Diseases and Conditions
Age-related diseases and conditions are those whose incidence increases
dramatically with age and include chronic diseases and conditions, such as skin
aging atherosclerosis, osteoporosis and Alzheimer's disease. There are
significant unmet medical needs associated with these diseases and conditions.
Many current therapies simply address the symptoms of these diseases and
conditions. Despite the limitation of current therapies, drugs and medical
devices targeting these diseases and conditions represent some of the largest
selling pharmaceuticals and devices. For example, the United States market for
cardiovascular drugs is about $10 billion, while the market for drugs addressing
osteoporosis and osteoarthritis is approximately $5 billion. The market for
retinoids used for skin therapy exceeds $3 billion. The Company's focus on
cellular aging and cellular immortality is designed to produce therapeutics and
diagnostics that address these diseases and conditions, focusing on their causes
rather than their symptoms.
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