INDEX UPDATE
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Per my short-term technicals, the overall market is in the upper midrange, and if it continues up I would get CLASS 1 SELL signals in 2-3 days. The SOX has been leading the NAZ/NDX to the upside, and if it continues to move up, I would get CLASS 1 SELL signals in 1-2 days, so it could be as soon as today.
As mentioned previously, my upside NDX target for this rally is 2050-2300, and yesterday's intraday high for the NDX was 2025, which I think is close enough. If the NDX cannot take out 2025 today it could mean that it may be taking a breather or that this rally is losing steam, and we should ignore that possibility in light of all the negativity.
On purely a subjective basis. Its obvious that right now the market is ignoring the bad news to some degree. The question is whether it is healthy or not, and I feel that it is not healthy down the road. I think that it is a matter of time that all this bad news will wear down the NAZ/NDX, unless goods news start coming out to over-ride the bad news. But if the bad news just continues - that aint good. The problem is how long will the market continue to ignore the bad news in the Hitechs - a few days or a few weeks or a few months - I dont know.
One thing I noticed that may be positive for the NAZ/NDX is that the DOW yesterday weakened more than the NAZ/NDX intraday, where the DOW lost most of its intraday gains while the NAZ/NDX held onto a little more than half of its intraday gains. Its way too early to say that sector rotation will continue, but if it does that would help push the NAZ/NDX rally higher.
Although I sound optimistic, the probability of retesting the recent lows is high, especially in light of yesterday's gap. So I will be taking profits/hedging soon/as early as today. |
