LMAO...Here is an analysis that shows we can't even predict weather beyond four days with any real accuracy!
Internet Weather Forecast Accuracy
Overall, the accuracy and consistency values prescribed caution - even when considering the most accurate and consistent weather forecasts. For example, if I wanted to know the high temperature for tomorrow, the numbers showed CNN Weather to be the most accurate Internet weather resource. Its weather forecast, however, comes with an average accuracy value of over 3° and a consistency value of over 2°. Thus, the conscientious browser would need to mentally append "with an accuracy of 3°±2°" to the temperature prediction and realize this results in a two degree span at best and a ten degree span at worst. This means a pessimist would be justified in reading a prediction of "75°" for tomorrow's high as nothing more than "70°-80°" - and this using the best online resource available! Granted, the optimist would also be justified in reading the same prediction as "74°-76°," but it's always best to plan for the worst case - especially when going to Schlitterbahn.
Many of the other less accurate weather forecasts, then, seem to be practically worthless for all but the most optimistic. Take, for example, the best option for determining the overnight low temperature a week from today, The Weather Channel. The appropriate accuracy baggage on this Internet weather forecast site would be ~5.6°±4.4°, pessimistically reducing a forecast of "50°" to "40°-60°" (!!). Perhaps this explains why only four sites ventured to provide weather forecasts more than a week in advance, and four others didn't even push beyond four days.
netscape.com |
