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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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To: Tommaso who wrote (21737)1/19/2005 11:15:07 AM
From: mishedlo   of 116555
 
U.S. housing starts up 10.9% in December -
Wednesday, January 19, 2005 2:55:51 PM
afxpress.com

Housing starts end 2004 on high note Sharp December increase follows November's plunge WASHINGTON (AFX) -- The nation's housing starts rebounded in December, rising at the fastest monthly rate in more than seven years after they declined sharply in the prior month, the Commerce Department said Wednesday

Total housing starts rose 10.9 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2 million units in December

Economists polled by CBS MarketWatch had forecast starts would climb to 1.9 million for the month. November's starts were revised to 1.81 million, up from the initial estimate of 1.77 million

Building permits, considered a forward-looking indicator for the home-construction market, fell 0.3 percent in December to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 2.02 million units

Still, economists warn that month-to-month swings in the starts and permits data may not be meaningful. It can take up to five months for a new trend in housing starts to be established

In the past five months, starts have averaged an annual rate of 1.96 million per month, unchanged from the comparable period through November. Over the past year, total housing starts have fallen 3 percent

Housing starts rose in every region of the country and in every major subcategory. "Going forward, housing starts data could be temporarily depressed due to the heavy rain and snow in the West and Midwest in January," said economist Omair Sharif of RBS Greenwich Capital Markets, adding that low mortgage rates and "healthy builders' backlogs are likely to keep starts well-supported in the coming months." Single-family starts rose 13.1 percent to a 1.68 million unit annual rate in December, the highest level since August and the largest monthly gain since September 2002

In the Midwest, starts rose 18.8 percent to 379,000 units, the fastest monthly increase seen since March 2003

Starts in the Northeast rose 5.7 percent to 168,000 units, while starts in the West rose 7.9 percent, reaching 516,000 units

And in the South, the country's largest region, starts rose 10.6 percent to 941,000 units, marking the sharpest monthly increase since November 2002

In a separate report Wednesday, the Labor Department said U.S. consumer prices fell 0.1 percent in December, led by weaker prices for gasoline and heating oil

And the Labor Department separately said initial jobless claims plunged by 48,000 to 319,000 in the latest week.
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