Semico lowers foundry forecast, but remains bullish
By Mark LaPedus
Semiconductor Business News
(08/08/02 01:59 p.m. EST)
PHOENIX -- Semico Research Corp. here has slightly lowered its silicon foundry forecast for 2002, but the market research firm is still bullish about the industry this year and beyond.
The Phoenix-based company now believes that the silicon foundry market will grow 31% in 2002 over 2001. Earlier this year, it predicted that the business would grow 35% or so in 2002 (see Jan. 15 story ).
Joanne Itow, who tracks the market for Semico, is sticking to her current forecast for 2003, saying the foundry business will grow by 34% over 2002.
“I am still sticking to my above 30% forecast [for 2002],” Itow said. “I am sticking to my forecast even though everyone is saying that the market is down in the dumps,” she told SBN.
The Semico analyst predicted that overall wafer demand and fab utilization rates will remain steady or climb in spite of a possible slowdown in the second half of this year.
At present, fab utilization rates among the major foundry players is around 70%, she said. “Utilization rates will go up from where they are now,” she added.
At the same time, however, there are mixed signals in the marketplace. Last month, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. said profit increased 41% sequentially in the second quarter, to $279 million, as utilization hit 85%.
But the company said third-quarter wafer shipments would decline by at least a few percent as average chip prices contract by 5% from the second quarter. At the same time, TSMC also cut its capital spending for 2002 (see July 25 story ).
Today, TSMC said net sales for July 2002 totaled about $400 million in July. This was a drop of about 13.3% compared to June 2002 but a jump of 57.3% compared with July 2001(see today's story ).
Rival United Microelectronics Corp. (UMC) grew its sales revenue and net profits in the second quarter of 2002, but the company still took the opportunity to announce a trimming of its 2002 capital expenditures (see July 30 story ). |
