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Politics : Welcome to Slider's Dugout
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To: ecrire who wrote (2196)8/10/2006 6:07:08 PM
From: pogohere   of 50725
 
Bob Hoye et al called the high in precious metals that would take place in May '06 and the low that occurred in June '06. He predicted following the low that gold (and maybe silver as well, but I can't recall) equities would appreciate 28-40% and that gold would lead silver higher. I believe he doesn't reveal his entire outlook in any one statement. I suspect that the move in gold/silver equities he saw then is yet to come and is a function of speculation/hedgers and not fundamentals. (And maybe that applies to his views about commodities in general.) I.e., unless the yield curve steepens, with either the short term rates falling or the longer rates rising, relative to one another, the market in precious metals is a function of the markets in general and will rise and fall with them. Absent a steepening yield curve, it would make sense to sell into strength and buy weakness. Once the yield curve steepens, buy and hold becomes viable for a longer term.
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