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Non-Tech : Amati investors
AMTX 1.595-1.5%10:40 AM EST

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To: pat mudge who wrote (21992)8/1/1997 1:46:00 AM
From: SHADOWDOC98   of 31386
 
Pat: It is starting to look more and more like it is going to be
Amati + Ipsilon or others marketed by Siemens and others
vs. Alcatel and Cisco (Dagaz), etc. Since Amati has access to
Copper-Gold and TI's C6x DSP chip and Ipsilon's product is re-
ported to be cheaper than standard routing technology, this
should prove to be interesting competition. Cisco and Alcatel's
corporate presence and marketing muscle certainly can't be
taken for granted. But in the long run I believe the company
that provides the best technology for the cheapest price will
gain the larger market share. I think this will be Amati and
its partners but I would certainly entertain opinions from
others. Let's not forget what the clones and then mail-ordering
did in the personal computer industry with cheap prices,
companies that started out very small to begin with and went up
against behemoths like IBM. Wonder if Ipsilon will be adopting
Cisco's "tag switching" technology and if this protocol has
has been selected as a standard for IP switching. I may be
wrong, but I think as we go forward, these issues may prove to
be important. With Motorola's and TI's chips (Amati DSP
version) coming out in the next 2-3 months, we will soon find
out if the telco's are going to deploy ADSL quickly as the
orders will tell the tale. My guess is that orders will explode
initially as chips will be in short supply for many months
and I do not think any of the telcos that have chosen DMT will
want to be squeezed out. Better to place a large order and
then cancel a portion of it akin to the way memory chips used
to be ordered when in short supply. On the other hand, if the
chips become available and orders for modems do not materialize
then the negative posters on this thread will be proven correct
in their predictions that ADSL will not significantly deploy
until late 1998 or 1999. I do not mind waiting for the longer
term picture to develop as a stock investor in Amati, but if I
were a corporate manager, I'd want ADSL for my work groups
immediately. All just IMHO.
PS: Pat, please see what info you can rustle up from your
sources on Ipsilon and the status of its products.
Just Call Me Doc

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