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Pastimes : Nasdaq Bottom?

QQQ 614.31

-0.8%

Dec 31 4:00 PM EST

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To: Shtirlitz who wrote (17)	12/25/2000 2:45:15 AM
From: Mr. Aloha	of 73

First of all, I'm expecting the market to go higher before it goes lower. Bear markets typically have huge rallies along the way. Secondly, I think we're going lower after this intermediate-term rally because I think the bear market is far from over. Bear markets don't end until there's true capitulation. I also think many Nasdaq stocks remain extremely overvalued, despite the recent carnage, and especially when you consider the slowing economy. Many "gurus" were saying that we weren't going to bottom out from this selloff until there was true capitulation. I disagree, as I think bear market rallies don't need capitulation, while the end of the bear market does. Dramatic rallies can occur from short-term deeply oversold levels before final capitulation and despite poor fundamentals. Did we have true capitulation in late May before that dramatic rally? I don't think so... So in sum, I join you in being bullish for the short-term, but I join the bears for the longer term after this intermediate-term rally. In the longer longer-term, I'm bullish and will be buying when nobody wants to buy and everyone thinks the market is dead...

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