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Strategies & Market Trends : Groundhog Day
QQQ 622.00+0.8%4:00 PM EST
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To: John Pitera who wrote (2166)4/24/2002 4:10:55 PM
From: Logain Ablar   of 6346
 
John:

As a basket of stocks the ones listed look fine. Personally I would wait till the telecom space is down in single digits in the BP. I don't think its there yet. With Verizon the latest to miss cap ex spending cuts continue. At some point they bottom and then the companies start adding again but in this market its easy to bottom fish and then find out the bottom is still 30% lower.

As an example CORV has plenty of cash and the CEO purchased shares @ $1.80 area. Company then acquired a company with shareholder dilution (not saying this isn't a good long term move) and additional cash burn. Last I checked (6 to 9 months) CORV is not projecting to be cash flow profitable until 2004 (and this was prior to the acquisition) so you have to figure they're going to be buring thru the cash level. Add in their 3 customers are Quest, Williams and Broadwing. 2 out of 3 are in distress. and you can see why its almost less than $1.

I still like storage. EMLX had a good conference call. MCDTA missed and it seems its due to not having the 2 gig product ready.

Now the issue is where do we bottom. 1600 for a successful retest or do we break 1400 again. It all depends on the economy (or where the market thinks the economy will be in 6 - 9 months.

Notice GE is close to its Sept low and the market still isn't close to the low. Not a good sign. Its staying below your 34 level (around 19 times this years forecast) and I think the market is more concerned with its 2003 forecast.
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