Peter,
Recent comment by Ian Sanderson, Managing Director, Institutional Research at SG Cowen Securities:
>>"On ALZA (NYSE: AZA chart, msgs), you get good visibility on how the primary driver to earnings is doing every Monday morning with the weekly prescription trends of Concerta. Investors will continue to pay what looks on the face of it to be an unreasonable multiple for that type of comfort. And we think that ALZA will continue to move up as long as the Concerta prescription trends and market share do well," Sanderson asserts.<<
Emphasis mine. Is there an independent single source in which such trends are tracked and published? I bet you'd know, and I bet it costs money. Unless he means that he has a source for specifically Concerta & ADHD market. Certainly I've been able to get a lot of figures about that market recently, in terms of how big and who's taking share from whom. But I imagine there's some market research outfit/publication that monitors this stuff and sells reports -- unless they're really nice and just give 'em away -- that Sanderson reads every Monday.
As more biotechs become profitable, we may have to face this sort of prescription trend analysis more often, god forbid!
Cheers, Tuck |
