My poking at charts yesterday convinced me I like cash. Today, I'm long cash. All in on cash.
I suspect I'm likely early on the trades I'm looking at in alternatives... I hope by a week or two, but maybe not... and maybe I win nothing from this but a few days not fidgeting over holdings while fidgeting over ghosts in the charts... maybe while missing a few days worth of price moves... still knowing there will be more days... always with something moving. So, for now, sitting on cash and poking at charts hoping to refine my analysis. Minimizing risk... not doing any FOMO.
I might be overly skittish... but, at the least, it looks to me like oil (and thus oil shares) might trade sideways or lower for a week or two... and since I've been riding oil stocks (since March and November), not seeing flashing sell signs as indicators in the charts of individual stocks means less than seeing it appear clearly enough as a slowing of momentum in the oil price charts...
Do the same exercise in other things... not just looking at price charts of specific shares, but the price charts of the underlying issues... oil, or gold, etc., in conjunction with the stock... since a lot of the share price depends on those other things providing and sustaining directional price support.
And, then... while pairing the stock chart with the underlying issue price chart... also consider the chart of the relevant volatility indexes for the "things and the "stocks" both...
For gold, that's the CBOE Gold Volatitity Index (^GVZ or $GVZ). Chart the volatility... note volatility of the volatility.. and consider the issues in the nuances in triangles and wedges at end points... not just in the share/commodity/volatility prices on charts, but also in the derivative indicators like the ADX and ATR... Look at daily charts... at least 4 to 6 months... and weekly charts... at least 5 years...
Recent patterns and relations in and out of bolly pinches... relative to past/recent like patterns ?
Three charts, each in two time frames, to consider for each issue... ?
In stocks... you can pair a volatility index useful in application to analysis of stock charts... with a direct investment potential... by charting the leveraged volatility of volatility... in something like UVXY...
Betting on increased volatility... doesn't require being right about which way things move out of a bolly pinch or a triangle or wedge vertex point... only being right in timing them in getting there... and having them move more than average when they do ?
I'm not there yet... an observer for now... but, did miss a 1% move in oil today... that my stocks opted to have just ignored completely... but also missed out on the 42% momove in DMGGF... and the 30% in RIOT... today at almost $78 ?
But, with a bit of luck... timing a major move correctly... using far out of the money cheap, cheap options on the shortest possible fuze ? I'm hawking the charts... waiting for it... hoping fuzes burn down more now without making any big reversal move... while I shift gears in my focus... to worrying about anything else...
At worst, I lose a bit of time... waste a few days. Get it right... and its worth the effort put into it... and costs very little $ for a lot of potential upside... IF you can get it right. . |
