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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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To: RealMuLan who wrote (22344)1/28/2005 12:30:42 PM
From: russwinter  Read Replies (1) of 116555
 
Associated Press
China's Boom Threatened by Coal Shortages
Friday January 28, 2:07 am ET
By Elaine Kurtenbach, AP Business Writer
China's Economic Boom Is Threatened by Coal Shortages, Official Says

SHANGHAI, China (AP) -- Coal shortages will be the biggest challenge for China's booming economy this year and Beijing has made boosting supplies a top priority, the government says.

With the economy growing at an annual rate of more than 9 percent, China is in the midst of an energy crisis. The inability of China's coal mines to keep up with soaring demand will be the greatest threat in 2005, the National Development and Reform Commission, the government's top planning agency, said in a statement on its Web site.


"To balance the demand and supply of coal will be the major task for China's economic control in 2005," said Cao Yushu, deputy secretary general of the commission. "China faces overall power shortages of coal, oil and electricity, among which coal shortages will rise to be the first concern."

China produced 1.9 billion tons of coal in 2004, a 15 percent increase over the previous year, but supply is failing to keep up with demand and stocks are dwindling, the commission said.

Demand is forecast at 2.1 billion tons this year but output can only be expected to reach 2 billion tons, it said.

China's railways are turning away more cargo than they handle as they struggle to keep up with soaring demand for coal and other commodities.

With most coal mines working at full capacity, operating conditions appear to have deteriorated. A number of major accidents have been reported in recent months, despite government pledges to improve safety.

Half of China's coal output goes to fire thermal power plants. Supply shortfalls have worsened already serious electricity shortages across the country.

By the year's end, power stations had only 10.99 million tons of coal stockpiled, down 1.12 million tons from a month earlier, the commission said.

Power shortages have worsened since December, with brownouts seen in 20 provinces, up from 16 provinces in November, the commission reported.

The government has forecast electricity shortages to hit 25,000 megawatts this year, only slightly lower than the 30,000 megawatts during last year's summer peak electricity demand season.

Last summer, the government ordered emergency shipments of coal, giving trucks and railways serving coal mines, mostly scattered in the north and northeast, priority over other cargo in reaching eastern coastal regions.

The commission said the government plans to build large coal production bases, expand coal transport networks and upgrade mines to improve safety.
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