sepku, if one follows the "election calendar", any retreat in this market should be over by March. Right now I see some weakness in the Aug early Oct. time frame, particularly due to possible slower shipments of PC. However, I think that this will be counter balanced with much greater shipment in telecommunication infrastructure (thus the difference in relative strength between INTC and TXN, IMHO). I think that next year will be a roaring market, this because of excess liquidity. I have two targets, a short term one which is a support on the Dow at just under 10500 (we just bounced from here again), and if that one fails, we could get a deeper retrenchment to about 9200 to 9500. I see low probability of this number being reached however, but who knows, it has been some time since we had a real bear market. I also believe that the SOX will be leading the next (or I should say current rally) and the I-net are going to be range bound, and lead another decline down later this year.
CYMI is well positioned to benefit from the semi recovery, and right now I do not see any reason to be bearish on the sector. Gee, I even have a "forecast" of above $80 for MU before the end of the year, but that one is for all for the wrong reasons.
Zeev |
