As I said, the 2 main questions are how many subs will they achieve and at what uptake rate, and where are costs going? You're not saying anything about these questions, though they are speculative in nature.
They are, speculative in nature, but the real question you should be asking yourself is.. How many customers will they KEEP! A new subscriber is simply an expense at this juncture. With an associated cost of capital. They increase Royality payments, Customer Care costs, etc. The one's that you are making money off of are the ones that you acquired 2 years ago. Those are the one's that have returned, or are darn close to it, returning the CPGA and associated costs back to the company. Most other subscriber models don't have to worry too much about this, because they are guaranteed to get their CPGA back, and receive 4X the ARPU.
Wall ST analysts don't like it when something happens outside their models which is why they're now downgrading the stock,
Because their models should be darn spot on. When they are not, they know something is wrong with their model, which means that the data that they use in their model must me wrong. Even though management says it is correct.
I remeber in 1998 when QCOM's entire enterprise value was 3 billion and NOK and ERICY were spending their time bashing the company and claiming they invented CDMA, when they should have just bought them up. QC now earns almost that much money every year..
Ahhh!! I call those the good ole' days. Actually, it was closer to 4 Billion and 1X Sales. Back in the days when the shareholder meetings were in the atrium of Building Q on Lusk.
ferspag.... CDMA market segmentation
by: PCSTEL >>>10/19/98<<< 10:57 am
Msg: 9348 of 584986
finance.messages.yahoo.com
Retired off of that one.
And so it goes,
PCSTEL |
