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Politics : American Presidential Politics and foreign affairs
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To: TimF who wrote (22378)8/31/2007 6:23:41 PM
From: TimF  Read Replies (2) of 71588
 
I think I do have to disagree with his "third heresy"

" To conclude this piece I come to my third and last heresy. My third heresy says that the United States has less than a century left of its turn as top nation. Since the modern nation-state was invented around the year 1500, a succession of countries have taken turns at being top nation, first Spain, then France, Britain, America. Each turn lasted about 150 years. Ours began in 1920, so it should end about 2070. The reason why each top nation’s turn comes to an end is that the top nation becomes over-extended, militarily, economically and politically. Greater and greater efforts are required to maintain the number one position. Finally the over-extension becomes so extreme that the structure collapses. Already we can see in the American posture today some clear symptoms of over-extension."

I don't disagree with the general principle that trends don't last forever, or with the idea that the US won't be the richest and most powerful country for ever, but there is no particular reason to pick 150 years. In fact many powerful countries have been at or near the top for longer or shorter periods.

Also I don't see any real sign of over-extenstion, esp. in the normally mentioned terms of spending too much on the military. We spend a pretty small % of our national wealth on our military compared to what we spent for over half of the 20th century, or compared to what many other historical top powers have spent.

Now 2070 is far enough in the future that its quite possible some country can pass us by then, all I'm saying is there is no particular reason to think it will happen.
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