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Pastimes : The Justa and Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club Thread
VTI 330.71-1.1%Dec 17 4:00 PM EST
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To: Lone Ranger who wrote (2245)2/3/2003 2:18:48 PM
From: Boca_PETE  Read Replies (2) of 10065
 
LR: RE:("Dow would retrace 50% from its highs...the bear market is a process...still ongoing... you can't tell until the process finishes")

I've heard some theorize that all bubbles retrace 100% to the market level at the start of the bubble. During the 1929-33 bear market, the dow declined 90+% from the high. By no means was that a 50% retracement. As you can see from the below charts, the 1929-33 decline represented retracement of a bubble that started in the early 1920's.

sharelynx.net

sharelynx.net

Some would argue that bubble rules apply to the current bear market and so we have much further to adjust downward. Current higher than historical bear market low valuations seem to support that view. So does the absence of prevalent bearish sentiment.

For him to say "the bear is still ongoing... you can't tell until the process finishes" is to me stating the obvious. This observation reminds me of the Yogi Berra quote "It ain't over, til it's over". Great Bob. Well tell us the specific conditions we can use to judge for ourselves (without you telling us) when the bear process will be judged to be "finished" by you and those who will buy in at the bottom.

P
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