Coming Next: Inflation or Deflation ?
Harry Dent debates Peter Schiff
Peter Schiff wins this round handily by pointing out that Harry's prior cycles in history were written with a sound dollar tied to gold, and not the to Fed and inflationary money printing that has only been enabled after 1974.
Both manage to be wrong, though, in addressing the dollar and gold, by failing to address the self-interest of the globalist bankers... while focusing on the dollar as a proxy for all fiat currencies, and on gold, as if the bankers did not exist or have an independent interest.
The result is... both are somewhat right... only leaving us with an uncertain potential in a sequence of events, the timing of which is uncertain... with an unfolding that depends on what DOES happen to the currencies... in relation to gold... when both the currencies and gold are not the random elements adrift in the economy they present... but BOTH are manipulated by the banks... in the banks own interest...
Harry and Peter both know it... but neither will say it... that the banks want gold... will cheat to get it... and will do whatever it takes to get it... whether that is creating inflation, creating deflation, creating the fear of them only, or just lying to you about any or all of it... to make it easier for them to take your gold away from you... including by manipulating markets...
Both end up thinking / knowing correctly that gold will go much higher in the end... but Peter is right again in saying that if you follow Harry's advice and it proves wrong... you'll go broke... and if you follow Peter's advice and he's wrong... you will end up with some fewer gains than otherwise...
They both refuse to address a third option... WAIT FOR IT... and then BUY LOW at the lows... as that doesn't require you take on risks they both want you to take... and neither do they address a fourth option... TRADE WELL... that requires that you manage your own money with a short term focus... to avoid the risks in the events they fear... without doing nothing... but both simply assume you cannot do that, and avoid assuming any choice exists other than one in which you choose to invest based on the advice one or the other provide...
Peter is right in being concerned that, if you wait too long... you might not be able to buy at all... as happened briefly in March/April 2020 and again recently as metals disappeared... only without that preventing you buying mining stocks, or physical in the form of PSLV... but access to physical could disappear as an early stage impact of rising prices... indicating "you missed the opportunity to buy low:"
Larger systemic risks are mostly avoided in the discussion... what happens if currencies fail and the banks fail... and your broker fails... if trading halts and bank restrictions on withdrawals are imposed, etc.
Have some cash on hand in case, or different currencies, have some physical stored in event of emergency, as savings, and not as an investment or speculative holding expecting price changes... take share certificates in things you want to own and hold without holding them in street name... but the focus here, now, is in trading and timing your efforts to win trades... without losing your ass by betting wrong...
In presenting macro views... neither addresses how to survive ups and downs in markets that change... a big part of which has to be... knowing how your investments relate to timing in the cycle we're in... and what you can and should do about managing risks by REDUCING exposure to the markets... rather than picking your poison and hoping for the best over the long term. And, neither addresses that in trading you are trading AGAINST someone... and that someone has a plan, a strategy, tactics and a goal... and the ability to manipulate the market... issue by issue... or the entire market at once... to make either Harry or Peter look more right on any given day... or to reduce the whole thing to a pile of rubble... when that works for them.
|
